In a paper pub­lished in the journal Sci­ence on Thursday, a team from North­eastern Uni­ver­sity took a shot at cre­ating a new tool for pre­dicting whether a paper will be a major breakthrough.

In the new work, Albert-​​László Barabási, a physi­cist who works in the emerging field of ana­lyzing net­works, found that with four to five years of data on how a paper has been received by the sci­en­tific com­mu­nity, it is pos­sible to make a fairly good pre­dic­tion of the long-​​term influence.

He used a barom­eter called “fit­ness,” which is a quan­ti­ta­tive mea­sure of how the com­mu­nity responds to a new piece of science.

Read the article at The Boston Globe →