Opin­ions differ as to whether a child’s dis­ci­pline in one answer means the same will apply in the other two. One of Karlan’s part­ners this year, econ­o­mist Jodi Beggs of North­eastern Uni­ver­sity, metic­u­lously rations out her candy but throws her cos­tume together at the last minute.

You would really hurt this pre­dic­tion,” Karlan told her in a con­fer­ence call to get ready for the big night.

You have to save the best candy for last!” Beggs replied. “You can’t waste it at the front.”

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