The mantra ‘pub­lish or perish’ is drilled into every early-​​career sci­en­tist — and for good reason, a com­puter model sug­gests. The most impor­tant pre­dictor of suc­cess for a young bio­med­ical sci­en­tist is the number of first-​​author papers pub­lished in jour­nals with high impact fac­tors early in a researcher’s career, according to the formula.

The model, cre­ated by com­puter sci­en­tist Lucas Carey, at Pompeu Fabra Uni­ver­sity in Barcelona, and his col­lab­o­ra­tors, also found that, even cor­recting for pub­li­ca­tion records, working at a highly ranked uni­ver­sity — and being male — are pre­dic­tors of aca­d­emic success.

The results appear today in Cur­rent Biology, and the team has built a web­site, pipredictor​.com, which tells early-​​career sci­en­tists whether their pub­li­ca­tion records are ahead of the norm.

Read the article at Nature News →