Some com­puter sim­u­la­tions focus on the risk of Ebola spreading to other coun­tries. Alessandro Vespig­nani, at North­eastern Uni­ver­sity, cre­ates those models, using infor­ma­tion about air travel and other kinds of transportation.

His work sug­gests that Ebola could find its way to African nations like Ghana, Gambia, and Senegal. “There is a tan­gible risk of spreading in the region to other coun­tries,” says Vespig­nani, “prob­ably in the ball­park of 20 to 30 per­cent in the next few weeks.”

He notes poor coun­tries might have trouble keeping an imported case from spreading. And the larger this out­break gets, the harder it will be to contain.

Read the article at NPR →